Ten INGV research groups analyze combined risks and the resilience of monitoring networks, also to support those managing emergencies.

Il L'Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009 It dramatically demonstrated how the effects of an earthquake cannot be captured by magnitude alone. Even then, the shaking produced different consequences depending on the geological characteristics of the affected areas. Along the Paganica fault, for example, the ground rupture also damaged an aqueduct in the Tempera area. In addition to buildings, the earthquake also affected the soil and essential infrastructure, demonstrating how the severity of a natural event depends as much on the physical phenomenon itself as on the characteristics of the territory in which it occurs.

Reconstructing this intertwining is complex, however, especially when a reliable picture of the consequences must be quickly obtained. Even more important is being able to anticipate these same scenarios, developing tools and methodologies capable of estimating their effects both on the territory and infrastructure and on the organization of relief efforts. Preparing, in fact, means strengthen both prevention and emergency response capacity.

Natural hazards, after all, don't always act in isolation. An earthquake can trigger landslides, soil liquefaction, ruptures, or tsunamis. Or, different phenomena can overlap and amplify each other's effects. From all this awareness comes MATRICS (acronym for Multi-hazard Assessment of Triggered and Compound Risks), a project coordinated by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology as part of the Pianeta Dinamico 2026-2029 program, in which researchers from the INGV, universities, and Italian and international scientific partners participate.

The multi-hazard approach to assessing combined natural risks

It is precisely on the close relationships between different natural phenomena that the project's approach, defined multi-hazard. As theINGV In the MATRICS presentation, rather than assessing each hazard separately, this method also considers events that can occur simultaneously, one after the other, or be linked by cause-and-effect relationships. These connections and (or) overlaps, as mentioned, can in turn increase the severity of damage to the population and the surrounding area, including infrastructure.

According to the Institute, ignoring such links can only lead to an underestimation of the overall riskThe importance of this perspective has long been underlined by the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in a current situation strongly marked by climate change, growing urbanization, and a general increase in exposure to extreme natural events.

The MATRICS results will also be made available to the National Civil Protection Service, so as to support the evaluation and management of scenarios in which multiple phenomena can contribute to amplifying the effects of an emergency.

From national mapping to local models: pilot areas

As illustrated by INGV, MATRICS aims to overcome the fragmentation between the methods currently used to study individual hazards, building a methodology aimed at connecting different models and skillsThe work will primarily focus on the effects associated with earthquakes, from ground shaking to seismic-induced landslides, liquefaction, surface faulting, and tsunamis. However, the analysis will also include volcanic eruptions and certain extreme weather events, when they can contribute to the formation of complex scenarios.

The project, more specifically, will operate on two scales: commitment, tools will be developed to recognize areas where multiple hazards may be present or combined, offering new insights for land-use planning and mitigation strategies; locallyInstead, more detailed models will be developed, based on high-resolution geological, geophysical and engineering data.

The first applications will concern theEmilia Romagna and Lombardy andStrait of Messina area, selected by the INGV as pilot areas for the co-occurrence of earthquakes, landslides, liquefaction, tsunamis, and other phenomena. The resulting methodologies and products can then be transferred to the Department of Civil Protection and regional and local governments, supporting both prevention and emergency management.

A multidisciplinary network of researchers will develop these tools. Coordinated by Lucia Luzi, research director of the INGV, MATRICS is in fact divided into ten working groups dedicated to different areas of study. The data produced will also contribute to enriching national and European scientific infrastructures such as EPOS and the platform MEET, encouraging their sharing and reuse.

Resilient monitoring networks at the service of those who operate in emergencies

A further area of ​​MATRICS, indicated by INGV among the most innovative aspects of the project, concerns the operational vulnerability of the same scientific infrastructures used to monitor the territory. That is, during a seismic or volcanic crisis, monitoring networks can suffer physical damage, power outages, communication problems, or malfunctions. Essential tools for understanding the event's evolution thus risk failing, or functioning only partially, precisely at the stage when they are most needed.

MATRICS will therefore analyze the vulnerability and operational resilience of the Institute's infrastructure, with the aim of identifying critical issues and contributing to making observation systems more robust. Inevitably, this area also closely concerns the organization of interventions: the continuity of monitoring allows the responsible bodies to have the information necessary to assess the scenario and correctly manage the emergency.

In fact, if on the one hand damaged networks, interrupted communications, compromised power supply or incomplete data can make it more difficult to reconstruct what is happening and to guide decisions in a timely manner, on the other hand more resilient observation systems can reduce the uncertainty in which institutions and technicians are called to operate, thus also contributing to the safety of the personnel involved in monitoring and managing emergencies.

From scientific networks to reporting: citizens' help with data collection

Outside of MATRICS activities, INGV integrates information from scientific networks with observations collected directly on the ground. Through the service Did You Feel the Earthquake? (HSIT), the more than 31 thousand registered citizen volunteers can in fact describe through a questionnaire the effects perceived after an earthquake.

A new feature also allows notifications to be sent for events with a magnitude greater than 3 based on the provisional automatic estimate, available approximately two minutes after the earthquake, provided the parameters present reliable quality indicators. The notifications, while not replacing instrumental surveys or subsequent expert review, contribute to rapidly enrich preliminary seismic feel maps, helping once again to reconstruct where and with what intensity the shock was felt.

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